Who's Next? - Possible Steroid-Enduced Seasons

After Manny Ramirez got suspended 50 games last week for hCG use it made me think who will be the next new name to come out in MLB’s steroid scandal? We all know the commonly accused players like Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Mike Piazza, but what about some new names. I don’t want anyone on the Mitchell Report, in anyone’s affidavit or in any new books coming out, I want all new names. I am just going but unusual spikes in stats and I am not accusing any player of using anything illegal, I am just saying that the stat spikes are suspicious.

So here is a list of 20 players that I think get overlooked. Some players are obvious, like Brady Anderson, Luis Gonzales and Adrian Beltre, while others may be surprising.

Moises Alou, CHC, 2004. In a contract year, Alou set a career high 39 HR at the age of 37. The last time he got close to that was 38 in 1998. In 2005 and 2006 he had a combined 41 HR.

Brady Anderson, BAL, 1996. He has one of the suspicious statistical jumps in a contract year. Here are his HR totals for his career 21, 13, 12, 16, 50, 18, 18, 24, 19, 8. With 50 HR in 1996 he almost doubled what he did the previous 4 years combined. And it took him 3 years to reach a total of 50 HR after 1996. Anderson never slugged over .500 before or after setting his career high with .637 in 1996.

Garret Anderson, ANA, 2000-03. There is no major jump in stats here but, for 5 straight years Garret was pretty consistent and averaged 14 HR and 78 RBI. But starting in 2000 his numbers increased by about 50%. In the 4 year span of 2000-03 he averaged 30 HRs and 120 RBI. Surprisingly his HRs dropped back to an average of 16 HRs and 84 RBIs in the next 5 years, starting in 2004 the first year of MLB's drug policy.

Tony Batista, MON, 2004. I just find it really odd that at the age of 30 Tony Batista had to go to Japan for a job in 2005. This after hitting 32 HRS and 110 RBIs in 2004. Jose Canseco talks about how he was blackballed because of his steroid use, what about Tony.

Adrian Beltre, LA, 2004. Every year Beltre was just around 20 HR and 80 RBI. In 2004, a contract year for Beltre, he hit 48 HR and had 121 RBI. Beltre’s slugging percentage went up 200 points and then dropped back down 200 points and the same went with his HR (19) and RBI (87).

Dante Bichette, COL, 1995. Previous career high of 27 HR in 484 AB, jumped to 40 in 579 AB. Lead league with .620 SLG previous hit .548 and after that .541

Ellis Burks, COL, 1996. HRs (40) in 685 ABs was increased by 19 from 1990 career high. Ellis had total 52 HRs in the previous 4 years (1992-95). RBI (128) was a increase of 36 from career high made in 1988. Burks had 177 RBIs in previous 4 years (1992-95). Stolen bases also went up to 32 a career high previously 27 at his rookie year in 1987. Ellis had 36 SBs in previous 6 years (1990-95). It wasn’t just the COL factor, since this was the 3rd years in COL. AB all were similar throughout the years so, stat increases like this seem a bit odd for some one of the age of 31.

Jermaine Dye, CHW, 2006. Set career high of 44 HR at the age of 32 when previous high was 33 in 2000. Jermaine always seemed to be a high RBI guy but in the 3 seasons before 2006, that he was healthy, he averaged 84. Then in 2006, Jermaine’s RBI spiked to 120. The following year Dye’s HR dropped to 28 and RBI to 78 in 2007. His slugging also dropped 140 points in 2007.

Cecil Fielder, DET, 1990. Cecil’s MLB career started off really slow. In 4 years he only had 31 HR, 84 RBI 506 AB in 4 years. In 1989 Cecil had to play in Japan in order to play every day. In Japan Fielder hit 38 HR in 384 AB. In 1990, Fielder’s HR jumped to 51 in 573 AB. Fielder’s numbers steadily declined each year since 1990.

Brian Giles, PIT, 1999-02. In 1999 Brian Giles’ HR (39) was an increase of 23 from the previous season. RBI (115) was an increase of 49. Giles’ slugging jumped 150 points from previous season. In 2003 the first year of anonymous testing Brian’s HR and slugging decreased to numbers that were consistent with his pre 1999 numbers.

Luis Gonzales, ARI, 2001. This season to me is the second worst one only to Brady Anderson. Here are the HR totals for Luis each year starting in 1996: 15, 10, 23, 26, 31, 57, 28, 26, 17, 24, 15. RBI totals: 79, 68, 71, 111, 114, 142, 103, 104, 48, 79, 73. In every season from 1996-06 expect 2004, Luis played at least 146 games. At the age of 33, Luis never had a season with 40 HR and he almost had 60 in 2001. He didn’t suddenly get more playing time plus started playing in a hitters park, he played in 140+ games every year since1996 and 2001 was his 3rd season in Arizona.

Shawn Green, TOR & LA, 1998-02. Shawn wasn’t really known for his power in his first 3 full seasons in MLB. Only hitting 42 HR in those 3 years, and collecting 152 RBI. Then starting in 1998, Shawn’s number spiked. Shawn averaged 38 HR, 118 RBI and had a slugging of .545 in the 5 year span. Now this isn’t too surprising, most guys are hitting their prime at the age of 25, which Green was in 1998, but to suddenly lose it in 2003 the first year of anonymous testing, is a bit suspicious.

Andruw Jones, ATL, 2005-06. Andruw averaged 30 HR in first 8 seasons, then hit 51 in 2005, and 41 in 2006, only follow by 26 in 2007. After being an everyday player for 8 seasons it seems suspicious that Andruw would all of a sudden hit 51 HR when his previous high was 36. Andruw’s slugging also increased by about 90 points from his 8 year average. Then in 2007, Andruw had a major slump for the entire season. Hitting .222, 26 HR, 94 RBI, .413 SLG.

Esteban Loaiza, CHW, 2003. Pitchers are hard to spot statistical spikes, so Esteban Loaiza is my only one on the list. From 1995 to 2002 Esteban Loaiza averaged an 8-9 record with 4.88 ERA and 5.4 K/9. In 2003 Esteban was 21-9 with a 2.90 ERA and had 8.2 K/9. From 2004-08 Loaiza averaged 7-6 with 4.81 ERA and 6.1 K/9. A big reason for this spike was that Loaiza had a huge salary decrease in 2003, from $6.05 mil in 2002 to $500,000. Then back up in 2004, back up to $4 mil. It’s clear that the suspicious season that Esteban Loaiza had in 2003 extended his career 5 more seasons, when it looked like he was on his way out after 2002.

Javy Lopez, ATL, 2003. 2003 was a contract year for Javy Lopez, and he made the most of it by hitting for a career high 43 HR. Javy’s previous high of 34 in 1998, which is a long time ago for a catcher. HR were on a steady decline for Lopez, 24, 17, 11 then 43. Since 2003, Javy hit 23, 15, and 8 HR. 2003 was also a career year for RBI with 109. RBI were declining since previous high in 1998 of 106; 89, 66 52 the 109 RBIs in 2003. Since 2003, 86, 49 and 35 RBI.

Fred McGriff, TB, 1999-02. After a steady decline in numbers the previous three years in HR (28,22,19) and RBIs (107,97,81), Fred McGriff turned back the clock when he hit 32 HRs, the most since 1994. Normally not a big deal but the man was 35 and he didn't get a chance to get his 500th HR only 7 HR short. Jose Canseco talks about being blackballed after 2001, maybe the same thing happened to McGriff in 2004 after cut by Tampa after 27 games.

Kevin Mitchell, SF, 1989. From the seasons of 1986-88 Kevin Mitchell averaged 17 HR, 64 RBI, .460 SLG and batted .268 in an average of 432 AB. In 1989 Kevin Mitchell won the NL MVP, the first Giant to do so since Willie McCovey in 1969. Mitchell hit 47 HR, 125 RBI, .635 SLG, and batted .291 in 543 AB. His HR spiked by about 150%, RBI by 50% and slugging by almost 200 points, with only 38 more AB. It doesn’t help that he was arrested in 1999 for assaulting his father and in 2000 he was suspended for punching the other team’s owner in the mouth. Mitchell also played for 8 teams in 13 seasons.

Alfonso Soriano, WAS, 2006. 2006 was a year of many changes for Alfonso Soriano. Soriano was traded to Washington and shifted from 2B to the OF in the all important contract year. A move to a pitchers ballpark you would think his HR numbers would decrease, but you would be wrong. Soriano’s HR total increased from 18 to 39 from 2001 to 2002, and since then has stayed consistently in the 30s, jumped from 36 to 46 in 2006. Since 2006 Alfonso hit 33 and 29 HR in 2007 and 2008.

Fernando Tatis, STL, 1999. After 19 career HRs and 87 RBIs in 2 years, with 755 AB, Tatis hit 34 HRs and had 107 RBIs in 639 ABS in 1999. A career AVG of .265, spiked to a career high BA of .298. Fernando was also out of baseball in 2004, the first year of the drug policy.

Greg Vaughn, MIL, SD, CIN, 1996, ’98, &’99. Contract years, huge spikes in production in HRs, RBIs, and SLG. All after turning 30. Career HR: 5, 17, 27, 23, 30, 19, 17, 41, 18, 50, 45, 28, 24, 8, 3. Career RBI: 23, 61, 98, 78, 97, 55, 59, 117, 57, 119, 118, 74, 82, 29, 5. Slugging: 1989-95 .445, 1996: .539, 1997: .393, 1998: .597, 1999-03: .466.

Phillies Win, Up 2-0 in Series

Game 2 Recap

The Phillies won Game 2 of the NLDS to take a 2-0 series lead against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies pulled out an 8-5 victory, in a game that featured some strange, and interesting storylines.

The Dodgers scored first for the 2nd straight game, taking a 1-0 lead in the top of the 2nd. The Phillies offense then busted out in bottom of the 2nd inning, with a two-out rally. With two outs and nobody on base, Greg Dobbs, obviously in there for his offensive ability, singled up the middle. Carlos Ruiz then doubled to the gap scoring Dobbs. Brett Myers, who would go on to be the offensive MVP this game, then singled to center scoring Ruiz. Rollins then singled to center, and on an error advanced to 2nd, as Myers advanced to 3rd. Shane Victorino, who has been the catalyst throughout the playoffs so far this year singled in Myers and Rollins to take a 4-1 lead. The Dodgers got a run across in the top of the 3rd, but the Phillies would answer again in the bottom of the inning.

Pat Burrell led off with a single in the bottom of the 3rd, followed by a Jayson Werth double. Dobbs was intentionally walked, loading the bases with 0 out. Ruiz grounded into a fielder's choice and Burrell was retired at home. It was up to Myers to get the job done. Myers was up to the task, and hit a 2-RBI single down the right field line. Two batters later, Victorino tripled scoring two more runs. This is all the run support that the pitching would need. Myers gave up a home run to Ramirez in the 4th inning, making the score 8-5, and it would stay there the rest of the game, as the Phillies bullpen came in and did what it has done all year long; shut down the opposing team. Shane Victorino made the defensive play of the game in the top of the 7th, with two outs. The Dodgers had two men on base, and Casey Blake ripped a ball to the deepest part of the park. Victorino trailed back, felt for the wall, and made a jumping catch right against the wall, to preserve the lead, and the game.

Brett Myers ended the game 3-3 at the plate with 3 RBI's and 2 runs scored. Myers said that he told Charlie Manuel before the game that he was going to go out and win one for Manuel's mother, who passed away earlier in the day. Shane Victorino also lost someone close to him, as he found out after the game that his grandmother had passed away also.

Game 3 Preview

The Phillies march on, 2 games away from advancing to the World Series. It seems like whatever this team does, they find a way to win. The Phillies are hot right now, and are doing almost everything right. The offense is doing enough to win, even without Ryan Howard hitting the ball hard. Guys like Shane Victorino are really coming up large in this postseason. Also, the bottom of the lineup, which got ridiculed most season long as they struggled, has really started playing well, and generating runs. When is the last time you can remember the Phillies putting up 8 runs on the board without a single home run. The Phillies led the league in home runs this season during the regular season, and usually live or die by the home run.

The starting pitching has really been another key, and has been really solid. Both Cole Hamels and Brett Myers have gotten the Phillies a 2-0 lead in both series' so far. Hamels has shown what a true ace of the staff is supposed to do. The bullpen has been amazing, and has an ERA of roughly 2.30 so far in the playoffs. The guys who did it all season are still going strong, in Durbin, Madson, and Romero. They have been able to keep the lead to get to "Lights Out" Lidge, who has kept his amazing saves streak alive.

I am looking forward to Rollins, and Howard just taking over this series at some point. I do feel like Howard will start hitting shortly. Right now, it doesn't matter, as long as the Phillies continue to find ways to win games.

Game 3 is Sunday night, 8:22 EDT. Moyers vs. Kuroda. Phillies lead series 2-0.

Phillies Up 1-0, Ready For Game 2

Game 1 Recap

The Phillies are now only three wins shy of getting to the World Series, as they won Game 1 against the Dodgers 3-2. You never want to lose home field in Game 1 of the series, especially with Hamels on the mound, and the Phillies took care of business.

The Phillies came out sluggish on offense, struggling with Derek Lowe’s sinker. The Dodgers got an RBI double from Manny Ramirez in the 1st inning, in what had to be the longest hit ball that wasn’t a home run in Citizens Bank Park history. A sac fly gave the Dodgers a 2-0 lead, and the Dodgers were in control, as Lowe was dealing. Then came the play of the game in the bottom of the 6th inning. Shane Victorino was leading off, and hit a routine grounder to short. Due to Victorino’s speed, Rafael Furcal hurried the throw, and threw wide of the base, allowing Victorino to end up on 2nd, and an error charged to Furcal. The very next pitch, Chase Utley put into the ball into the seats in right field, tying the game at two. After Ryan Howard grounded out, Pat The Bat crushed a line drive home run to left field. Burrell has three home runs in his last two games now, all of which have been clutch. The three runs would be all the Phillies pitchers would need.

Hamels pitched another gem, and ended up with 7 innings pitched, only allowing 2 runs, striking out 8. Hamels got more and more comfortable as the game went on. He cruised through the 6th and 7th innings, which was important as the Phillies had just taken the lead. Madson got out of the 8th, retiring Manny on a line drive to 3rd. Lidge came in to record the save, and got it done with a 1-2-3 inning on only 13 pitches to give the Phillies the 1-0 series lead.

Game 2 Preview

Game 2 will feature a matchup between the Dodgers strikeout machine, Chad Billingsley, and the Phillies Brett Myers. We all know about Brett Myers up-and-down season. Myers pitched well in his start against the Brewers in the NLDS, but will be facing a tougher lineup this time. The Phillies need to get off to a good start this game, take the lead, and force the Dodgers to come from behind to win this game. The Dodgers have a lot of young players on their team, and if you get them into a situation where they start pressing, they are likely to struggle. Just as Game 1 was, this is another important game to win for the Phillies, as the next three games are in Los Angeles.

On offense, Chase Utley was called out coming into this series, and really delivered in Game 1. We need to get our big man, Ryan Howard going now. The Phillies were fortunate as Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Ryan Howard all went 0-4 in Game 1, and the Phillies still won the game. The Phillies will need those guys to hit if they want to win this series. Rollins, and Victorino really need to set the table for Utley, Howard, and Burrell to drive them in. When Jimmy Rollins is hitting, this team is very hard to beat.

Game 2 is Friday, 4:30 EDT, Myers vs. Billingsley. Series: 1-0 Phillies

In breaking news, Kotite's Corner has learned that Charlie Manuel's mother has passed away. The Kotite's Corner family sends our condolences to the whole Manuel family. No word yet on what Manuel's managing status will be for Game 2. Either way, let's come together as fans, and hope the team comes together to win this whole thing for Charlie.

Phillies NLCS Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are in the NLCS. I'll say it again.... the Phillies are in the NLCS. It's hard to believe, because it hasn't happened since 1993. Anytime you are in the playoffs in baseball, it is exciting, because not many teams make it like the other professional sports. Now, the Phillies are in the NLCS, only 4 wins away from going to the World Series, and we are excited as hell for Game 1.

PITCHING

The Phillies should start out with the same four starters they used against the Brewers, going with Hamels, Myers, Moyer, and Blanton. I would assume Hamels would pitch game 5 if necessary, and Myers game 6, then who knows how they would work it for Game 7, probably Moyer. The Dodgers have some very good starters of their own, who have all been pitching well lately. Their first three starters will be Lowe, Billingsley, and Kuroda. The Phillies do not have much success off of that trio of right-handers. The pitching appears to be fairly even and will come down to which starting pitching staff is pitching well at the right time. Both starting pitching staffs were impressive in the teams' first round series. Both teams bring to the series a very good bullpen, and in a 7 game series matching two teams that appear to be fairly equal, the bullpen is sure to decide a game or two. The Dodgers have multiple lefties in their bullpen, who will no doubt be called upon to get Utley and Howard out at critical times in the series.

BATTING

The Phillies offense was the superior offense throughout most of the season. But with the Dodgers mid-season acquisition of Manny Ramirez, their offense has been hitting on all cylinders late in the season and into the playoffs. The Dodgers lineup features a few playoff-tested veterans, and some very young players, who have never been this far in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers young players look in a hostile playoff environment. It will also be interesting to see how the Phillies approach Manny Ramirez, who has two world series rings, and can get it done in the postseason. Andre Ethier batted behind Ramirez in their series against the Cubs, and is one of the aforementioned young players in the Dodgers lineup. The Phillies throw out a very inconsistent offense, which is usually very good from batters 1-6, and pretty bad from batters 7-9. Obviously, going six batters deep in any lineup is not too shabby, both all six of those players (Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Burrell, and Werth) need to produce if the Phillies want to win. Just as the Phillies have decisions to make on how to approach Ramirez at the plate, the Dodgers have to figure out how they are going to pitch to Utley, and Howard. The two lefties have not gotten off to a good start in the first series against the Brewers, both batting under .200. However, both of them faced more than half of their at-bats against left-handed pitching.

INTANGIBLES

The managing has to favor the Dodgers. It's not a coincidence that the Dodgers have gotten this far with Joe Torre as their manager, and the Yankees did not even make the playoffs for the first time in forever. Joe Torre has been here before, many times, and knows the right moves to make, and will approach this as just another game on his way to another world series. Charlie Manuel is mostly untested in the playoffs, especially as Phillies manager. I give Uncle Charlie a lot of credit for the way he has managed this season, and in the first round of the playoffs. Manuel may make questionable decisions on when/who he pinch hits, and who he brings out of the bullpen, but the team played very loose against the Brewers, and that is a credit to Manuel. Manuel has to do his best to try to match Joe Torre now, but Manuel should stick to what he does best - adjust his hitters when he sees something they are doing at the plate, and keep the players loose; do not let the players get wrapped up in the fact that they are four wins away from appearing in the World Series.

The home field I think is very important in baseball, and the Phillies will get 4 out of 7 games at home, which is a big deal. Our home crowd was unbelievable in the NLDS, and I feel like we really gave a boost to the players on the team. Players such as Rollins, Victorino, Myers, and Burrell seem to feed off the crowd's energy, and there are no better fans than here in Philadelphia, especially when the energy coming from the fans is positive. Most important in regard to the home field advantage, are Games 1 and 2. The Phillies have to use their knowledge of the park, and hopefully get some good umpiring, and some help from the fans to hold down our fort, Citizens Bank Park.

Game 1 of the NLCS is Thursday night at 8:00 EDT, on Fox. The starting pitching matchup is Hamels vs. Lowe.