2009/03/31

Oddsmakers (Kotite's Style)


Check out our version of oddsmakers, Philly style--

Percentage chance Calipari leaves for Kentucky?
Roget: 70%
Mr. Green: 85%

Percentage chance James van Riemsdyk plays with the Flyers/Phantoms next season?
Roget: 35%
Mr. Green: 72%

Percentage chance van Riemsdyk is on the Flyers first game next season?
Roget: 17.5%
Mr. Green: 55%

Percentage chance the Sixers win 2 games in the playoffs this season?
Roget: 40%
Mr. Green: 58%

Percentage chance the Flyers win their first round series in the playoffs?
Roget: 75%
Mr. Green: 60%

Percentage chance the Flyers win 2 series this postseason?
Roget: 51%
Mr. Green: 44%

Percentage chance Pitt beats Villanova if the game goes to OT?
Roget: 70%
Mr. Green: 86%

Percentage chance the Phillies win the NL East this season?
Roget: 75%
Mr. Green: 60%

Percentage chance the Phillies win the NL this season?
Roget: 60%
Mr. Green: 52%

Percentage chance the Eagles trade up in the draft?
Roget: 17.5%
Mr. Green: 35%

Percentage chance the Eagles take an offensive lineman in the first round?
Roget: 92%
Mr. Green: 75%

Percentage chance the Eagles take a running back in the first round?
Roget: 32%
Mr. Green: 30%

Percentage chance Andre Miller is in a Sixers uniform first game next season?
Roget: 48%
Mr. Green: 35%

Percentage chance Michael Wilbon hates everything about Philly except for McNabb?
Roget: 100%
Mr. Green: 100%

2009/03/27

Lost: "He's Our You" Is Young Ben Dead?


Really we could recap "He’s Our You" but really all we should discuss is the last scene. Is Young Ben alive or dead? Here is a recap of our theories on both sides:

Dead: 1977 Ben is dead. Without Ben, there is no purge. That is why when Sun and Lapidus were in the barracks, dharma pictures were hanging up on the wall. This can potentially change everything. Without Ben, Widmore doesn’t get into a power struggle with him and leave the island, so now would 2007 Widmore be transported to the island? Doubtful. How do they explain everything that could change? There has to be some sort of rules here if he is dead. That is why I think ‘07 Ben is alive for now. Sun just hit him with an oar. He looked way worse than that when Illana showed him to Locke. Maybe he still has the bullets lodged in him.

Alive: Ben has to be alive, because Sawyer and Juliet saved Amy's life in their version of 1977. Amy then gives birth to Ethan. Ethan was alive in 2004 when the plane crashed before the losties ever go back to 1977. This means that when they crashed in 2004, Sawyer had already saved Amy's life so that Ethan could be born. For a while I was thinking about Lost as two separate linear timelines, in which the 1977 one directly and instantly effects the 2007 one, but I was wrong. They are on the same time line and in 2007 no matter what is done in 1977, it has already been done before they got on that plane. Sayid shooting young Ben is going to be just like when Michael tried killing himself. Sayid could shoot Young Ben 100 times and he will live. Sayid just is not aware of the rules. Both Pierre Change and Daniel Faraday spoke of rules with time travel and when Ben and Widmore met they discussed how they cannot kill each other, probably due to these rules also. Jack is going to save 1977 Ben in next week’s episode. That's why Ben had to get Jack to go back, because he knew it already happened and Jack had to be there to save him. And that is also why Sayid ended up on the plane because he had already shot Ben and no matter what he did, he was going to end up back on the island in 1977. Jack is a doctor and would ultimately help anyone in any situation. He thinks he is a strong and self-thinking man, like Sawyer and Sayid, but when it comes down to it, his biggest struggle in life is that he is always questioning himself and will do anything to fix every situation and prove to everyone he is a great man. If he gets the chance, he will try to save Ben's life again. You can't change the past, and what we are seeing now is just stuff that has already happened.

2009/03/25

NFL Mock Draft (3/25/09)

1. Detroit Lions – Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia

We might not agree with this pick, but we do believe that Stafford will be the choice here at #1 for the Lions. They drafted Drew Stanton 2 seasons ago, who a lot of people said was 1st round talent, yet they have not yet given him a shot to start. The Lions probably should look to take Smith here, but we still think the pick is Stafford.

2. St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Classic left tackle who is arguably the top offensive lineman in a draft full of them. The Rams clearly need someone to protect the QB’s backside to replace Orlando Pace. Very athletic for his size.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

Clearly the best linebacker in this draft, and maybe the safest pick in the entire draft. All signs point to Curry being a future pro-bowler. Since the Chiefs acquired Matt Cassell to address their QB situation, they would be silly to pass on Curry at this point if he is there.

4. Seattle Seahawks – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

Some people consider Monroe the best offensive lineman in the draft over Jason Smith. Monroe is a classic tackle, perfect size, and the Seahawks should go offensive lineman, since they just signed Houshmandzadeh at wide receiver.

5. Cleveland Browns – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

It will be interesting to see where Crabtree ends up going, as he is falling in the eyes of some due to his upcoming surgery, and not being able to participate in the combine. He also measured in at 6’1” instead of the 6’3” he was listed as at Texas Tech. Still a beast, who is the best receiver among a group of deep receivers in this draft class, and the Browns may take him here having just lost Stallworth, and looking to trade Edwards.

6. Cincinnati Bengals – B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

Raji not only dominated the senior bowl, he also performed very well at the combine. Raji has established himself as the best defensive tackle in the draft. The Bengals can’t stop anybody on defense, and Raji will be a good stopper up the middle, similar to Haloti Ngata of the division rival Ravens.

7. Oakland Raiders – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

Maclin may be the ultimate “playmaker” of the draft. Maclin has speed, can run routes, catch the ball, and can return punts. Definitely the 2nd best receiver in this draft behind Crabtree, and could fit in for the Raiders right away, as they have no good receivers.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

The Jaguars have addressed a few needs in free agency, and with Andre Smith on the board here, they may take him. The Jaguars did sign veteran Eagle Tra Thomas, but he is old, and the Jaguars offensive line was terrible last season. Smith was once considered a top 5 pick, and could be a steal here for the Jaguars. Look for them to maybe take a receiver if Crabtree or Maclin is still available.

9. Green Bay Packers – Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

The Packers need help in many areas on the defense, its tough to narrow it down. Orakpo is a guy you can plug in as the foundation of a defense, and is a flat out physical specimen. The Packers defense obviously needs to get better and younger to compete in the NFC, and Orakpo would be a good place to start.

10. San Francisco 49ers – Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

The 49ers missed out on getting Kurt Warner this offseason, and clearly need a quarterback, and Sanchez could be the guy. Sanchez could turn out to be a very good QB, but may take some time to break in to the starting lineup.

11. Buffalo Bills – Everette Brown, DE/LB, Florida State

Brown is a guy who can play both defensive end, or outside linebacker positions, depending on what the Bills need. The Bills need a solid defensive end who can get after the quarterback, and Brown plays a lot in the backfield, on both running and passing plays.

12. Denver Broncos – Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State

Maybin is a solid prospect out of Penn State, who can project as an outside linebacker or defensive end. Maybin didn’t do much to help himself at the combine, but bounced back with a terrific pro day. Either way, Maybin could be exactly what the Broncos need at defensive end, or outside linebacker.

13. Washington Redskins – Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

Another one of the good tackles that will be taken in the first round. Oher could go higher or lower, depending on how teams rank the tackles that are available. The Redskins need offensive line help, as they have addressed a few other needs already in the offseason.

14. New Orleans Saints – Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

The Saints need help all over their defense, and Jenkins is probably the best secondary player in this draft. Jenkins had a bad combine, so some are projecting him as a safety. Probably will be able to be effective at safety or cornerback.

15. Houston Texans – Rey Maualuga, LB, USC

Maualuga is a playmaker. He had a bad combine, but if you watch tape of this guy, he stands out. He can get to the edges, and cover a tight end or running back. The Texans need defensive help, and Maualuga would look good plugged in right next to Ryans.

16. San Diego Chargers – Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

May have done the most to help himself at the combine than anybody else. Ran the fastest 40 at the combine, and with his decent size, locked himself into being a first round pick. The Chargers don’t have much depth at receiver, and Heyward-Bey could provide help to Rivers, Gates, and the rushing attack.

17. New York Jets – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

One of the most intriguing guys in the draft is Freeman. At the combine, Freeman was shaky, but showed a tremendous upside. Could be a huge bust, but may be worth it for the Jets who will be hurt without having Favre at QB.

18. Chicago Bears – Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

Harvin had a great career in college, and looks like he could be a good playmaker at the next level. Harvin has been shooting up the draft boards due to his combination of speed and strength. The Bears could go a couple different ways here, but as we have projected Freeman off the board, there is no QB worth taking here.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

The Bucs have running backs, but they are very fragile and never healthy. Moreno is probably the best running back in the draft, and if he is available at this pick, may be a huge steal.

20. Detroit Lions – Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi

The Lions need to go defense here if they take a QB #1 overall. Jerry is the 2nd ranked defensive tackle this season, and could make an immediate impact on the Lions.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh

McCoy is a beast, and may be the most complete running back of this draft. McCoy is considered a small back at 5’11”, but weighs 210, and can run the ball up the middle if he needs to. Finds the hole quickly, and can make defenders look foolish with his cutting ability. Should be a solid back for years to come. Has better numbers than any of the other RB’s in this draft. With Buckhalter gone, and Westbrook hitting the age of 30, the Eagles need a good running back in this draft.


22. Minnesota Vikings – Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

The Vikings use this pick on the secondary in an attempt to make their passing defense as good as their rushing defense. Davis is the 2nd ranked cornerback in this draft, although he may be the most athletic. Davis is a flat out playmaker.

23. New England Patriots – Brian Cushing, LB, USC

It is obvious that the Patriots are looking to get younger at the LB position, and with losing Vrabel, we think they will take the best available linebacker to groom into a beast in the Patriots defense. Cushing is shooting up the draft boards, and some say he will go before teammate Rey Maualuga. Cushing has a lot of upside, and could be a steal at this pick.

24. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

Great blocker, but doesn’t have much speed. Can still catch what is thrown his way, and should be effective. The Falcons should be surrounding Matt Ryan with talent, to maximize his talent. They have Turner, and White already. Pettigrew should be able to help out a lot with the passing and running game.

25. Miami Dolphins – Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

The Dolphins have a need on the defensive line, they do not have much depth here, and they have not yet been able to replace the production of Jason Taylor. Jackson is one of the best defensive end’s in this draft.

26. Baltimore Ravens – Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan

With most of the playmakers (Maclin, Harvin) off the board here, look for the Ravens to continue to keep their defense among the best in the NFL. The Ravens lost their starting strong safety, Leonhard, and Ed Reed could groom Delmas to be the next great Ravens defensive player.

27. Indianapolis Colts – Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DT, Missouri

The Colts need a solid defensive tackle to plug up the middle, as their run stopping continues to be poor. Hood is a very good defensive tackle, who can come in and help plug up the middle of the line, which is exactly what they need.

28. Philadelphia Eagles – Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

The Eagles haven’t done much this offseason, but it seems clear that both offensive tackles will not be with the team next season. The Eagles signed Stacy Andrews, but still need another tackle in this draft. Britton could be a steal at this pick.


29. New York Giants – Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

The Giants could look elsewhere in this pick, since they are inviting Burress back to their initial minicamps. However, there is no guarantee that Burress will be back with the Giants, and the Giants clearly were not the same without him. Britt is a receiver who has the same skill set as Burress; he is tall, and can stretch the field. He also attended Rutgers, giving him a local tie to the New York/Northern New Jersey area.

30. Tennessee Titans – Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

Nicks proved himself this season to be among the nation’s elite wide receivers. Looks a lot like Larry Fitzgerald when he plays. Is a true #1 receiver, can catch the ball anywhere on the field, and makes catches that most receivers can’t.

31. Arizona Cardinals – Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State

Wells stock has been up and down all offseason, but could end up being a great pick for the Cardinals at this pick. The Cardinals definitely need a running back, and Wells is both athletic and can make people miss, or run the ball between the tackles. Should be a solid back for years to come, and the Cardinals should not let him get past them, with Edge wanting out.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers - Alex Mack, C, California

The Steelers may get a steal here in Mack. There are a lot of other good offensive lineman going in the first round, most are huge tackles, so Mack can get overshadowed. The Steelers need offensive line help, and Mack can provide it.

Click here to check out last week's mock draft.

2009/03/23

Down to the Sweet 16


March Madness is under way, and we just got through the first 4 straight days of 1st and 2nd round games. Let's take a look at who is left, and what we saw over the weekend.

In the East bracket, where games will be played in Boston, all chalk, as the 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds advanced. Pitt as the #1 seed was in a battle for 37 minutes against East Tennessee State. To see details from that game, check out the live blog on it. Pitt also had a tough game against Oklahoma State in the 2nd round in a game that saw an unbelievable first half, the highest scoring 1st half of the tournament so far, with the score tied 49-49 at halftime. Pitt advances to play 4th seeded Xavier, which knocked off Portland State, and #12 seeded Wisconsin. In the other game, the 2 vs. 3 seeds will play with Duke against Villanova. This should be a great game. Duke had to battle to get here against Texas in the 2nd round, whereas Villanova blew out UCLA by 20, after struggling in the 1st round against American.

In the South, we again see the 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds advancing. UNC, the #1 seed had to battle to beat LSU, in a game LSU was leading by 5 in the 2nd half. UNC will play 4th seeded Gonzaga, who just played one of the most memorable games of the tournament against Western Kentucky. Gonzaga won on a buzzer beating shot to advance. The 2 vs. 3 seeds in this region will play in another matchup which should be a good one with Syracuse playing Oklahoma. Both teams had double digit victories in the 2nd round.

In the Midwest, we see the only remaining double digit seed in #12 seed, and possibly the last team to make it into the tournament, Arizona. They will face the #1 seed Louisville. Louisville looked to have their game against Siena in control, but Siena took a 4 point lead with eight minutes remaining until Louisville took control and won. Another 2 vs. 3 matchup features Michigan State and defending champion Kansas. Michigan State had to battle to win a 2nd round game over USC, and Kansas has been tested, but has looked good in wins over North Dakota State, and Dayton.

In the West, we see almost all chalk, with 1, 2, 3, and 5 seeds remaining. UConn had blown out both opponents thus far, and will play 5th seeded Purdue in the Sweet 16, a team that had a great game against Washington in the 2nd round. The 4th 2 vs. 3 matchup is featured and will be Missouri against Memphis. Memphis struggled in their opening game, but destroyed Maryland in the 2nd round. Missouri won a wild game against Marquette to get to this point.

Not too many upsets to this point, there is only one team seeded above 5 left in the tournament. The Big East set a record with 5 teams in the Sweet 16, the most ever. This tournament has been good so far, and should get even better with some potential classic matchups remaining.

2009/03/21

Reid: Here We Go Again


Amid all the Madness of March, Eagles' head coach and arrogant apologist Andy Reid (AKA The Mormon Mound), offered some pearls of wisdom during a closed conversation with an unnamed "Eagles employee" (Suck-Up Spadaro). The comments were quietly posted on the team's web site, and the Inquirer's requests to follow up on these brilliant insights with Reid himself were flatly denied. Distracted as we all are by bracketology these days, Kotite's Corner as a public service would like to drag Reid's remarks out of the shadows and give them the wider attention they so richly deserve. Here, then, is the wit and wisdom of Philly's best stand-up comedian, Andy Reid:

Asked about the team's underwhelming free agent moves: "You can take the team we have today and go compete for a championship in the National Football League. Now, you may have to move some people around to do some things there, and we have to get a little more depth at some positions, but with the people we have, we know we can compete for a championship."
(Great start, Andy -- you have the audience in stitches right from the opening monologue. Leno and Letterman would be envious!)

Pressed on why the Eagles have taken a "conservative approach" to free agency when they have enormous salary-cap room: "You can say it's a conservative approach, or you can just say it's smart."
(All righty, then...Please stop, Andy, we just can't take anymore -- we're laughing so hard that it hurts)

Asked if the current receiving corps is good enough to win a Super Bowl: "I think it is as you compare it to other teams, the teams that went to the Super Bowl."
(No more, Andy, no more...You have Yuengling coming out of our noses!)

Uh, what about that guy Fitzgerald, Andy?: "Now, you've got Larry Fitzgerald, who is the elite of the elite, and to compare him to our guys -- I think Larry is probably the finest receiver in the game right now. But I'll put our group up against other receiving groups in this league..."
(Um, like Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes and that other guy, Hines Ward? Stop, Andy, stop -- you're killing us!)

And, finally, asked about his approach to coaching, which Tra Thomas suggested was a bit on the passive (clueless) side: "I am who I am. I do what I do."
(What a clever finish -- repeating an obscure quote from Kramer in one of the Seinfeld episodes, thereby subtly comparing himself to a doofus for anyone aware of the character -- Andy is clearly a master of cerebral comedy as well as slapstick!)

So there you have it, Eagles' fans -- deja vu all over again! As long as the Reid/Banner/Lurie gang is in charge, we're condemned to live every day like characters in Groundhog Day....Let's go Phils!!

2009/03/20

Pitt vs. East Tennessee State Live Blog


The Pitt Panthers are scheduled to begin their 2009 NCAA Tournament today at 2:55. This is the Panthers 8th straight year in the NCAA Tournament, and being a #1 seed, this may be our best chance to go deep into the tournament. While watching the game, I did a live blog for Kotite’s Corner, and it is included below.

2:35 PM: Oklahoma State just beat Tennessee in a great game. This is the game before the Pitt game, so we’ve got about 30 minutes before the tip of Pitt vs. East Tennessee State.

2:56: I’m way too nervous for rooting for a #1 see against a 16 seed.

3:06: And the game is under way, Pitt wins the tip, Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery calling the game.

3:08: ETSU going full court press to start the game, 5-3 ETSU as they drain a 3 from half court.

3:12: First timeout on the floor, 11-7 Pitt, Young, Fields, and Blair all on the board for us, which is a good sign.

3:17: 4th turnover for Pitt already, bad sign.

3:21: How can you not dance when these Geico commercials come on? 17-15 Pitt.

3:26: Ashton Gibbs off the bench draining a 3. We sat next to Gibbs’ mom at an earlier Pitt game this season, nice lady.

3:29: Apparently Jaime Dixon never taught his team how to beat a press. He’s only had all season, 20-19 Pitt, 7:31 left in the first half. Pitt seems close to making a run, let’s see if we can do that at the end of the 1st half.

3:35: Pitt with 8 turnovers already, to ETSU’s 1, 20-20 game.

3:38: 10 Pitt turnovers, this is getting ridiculous, really sloppy game. We really should be losing right now, and if we keep playing like this, we will be the 1st #1 seed to lose to a 16 seed. And I will be depressed.

3:39: DeJuan Blair gets a technical foul for hanging on the rim. Bad call, his feet weren’t under him, he could have gotten hurt if he let go earlier. ETSU just made both free throws, 24-22 Pitt.

3:43: Bill Raftery is the best color announcer in college basketball, and it’s not even close. And I’m not just saying that cause I’ve met him before. He should team up with Gus Johnson to make an all-star announcing lineup. Can’t we get Raftery to start doing color for CBS football games?

3:45: Another turnover due to the press…. sloppy.

3:50: I’m watching the most pathetic game of the tournament so far. With 1:20 left in the first half, the score is 24-23 Pitt. I wish I had some great highlights to talk about, but I think Pitt had 4 points in the past 10 minutes.

3:56: Halftime - 26-23 Pitt. We have 13 turnovers, and 10 made field goals. DeJuan Blair is the only Panther who came to play, he already has 11 points, 10 rebounds at halftime. Levance Fields leads the nation in assist-turnover ratio, and has already turned the ball over numerous times. Sam Young apparently didn’t even show up to the court today. ETSU should be winning and would be if they could make a 3-pointer. Pathetic.

4:12: Dixon better get this team ready for the 2nd half, we need to get our shit together.

4:21: Same story for Pitt, 2 missed layups in a row, 30-29 Pitt, this one may come down to the wire.

4:23: Sam Young drains a 3, thanks for showing up Sam. 33-29 Pitt, let’s go boys.

4:25: These Degree commercials are stupid with the guy on the grocery cart flying through traffic. Give me a break.

4:26: The Philadelphia Eagles signed Seahawks fullback Leonard Weaver. Just saw that, figured I’d pass that along.

4:29: DeJuan Blair tries a reverse layup when he could have dunked, Fields gets rejected on a breakaway, then Pitt allows an ETSU player to get his own miss, and putback. Turnover Pitt, 15th of the game. 35-33 Pitt, ETSU ball.

4:33: Another offensive board for ETSU. 37-37, 14 minutes left. At some point I would think we would be able to put these guys away.

4:35: Levance Fields need to get involved in this game, he is flat out playing horribly.

4:39: DeJuan Blair for 2, hes got 20 points and is carrying Pitt right now, 44-40 Pitt.

4:40: Arizona State beats Temple.

4:43: 15th turnover for Pitt, except every team to press Pitt from here on out.

4:47: Pretty pathetic that I am happy that Pitt is up 4 points right now.

4:52: 50-45 Pitt, currently sitting at 16 turnovers. DeJuan Blair is carrying this team right now. Please stay in school DeJuan.

4:53: Back to back 3’s, 53-48 Pitt, under 8 timeout. I’m nervous as hell.

4:57: I was about to take the Levance Fields jersey off and switch to the Oakland Zoo, but I have to stick with the jersey for the whole game.

5:01: We are completely rattled right now, it’s like we are in completely over our heads right now. We have no idea what to do. ETSU gets a 4-point possession, 61-57 Pitt. I’ve seen this Pitt team lose games before, but to be just throwing balls out of bounds on inbounds plays, like we have never seen the press, or a 1-3-1 zone before.

5:07: ETSU just got their 19th offensive rebound. Pitt is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and ETSU is owning them on the offensive boards.

5:08: I’m shitting my pants right now.

5:10: Gibbs drains a huge 3, but Pitt doesn’t defend on the other end, and gives up an easy layup. Pitt up 67-61 with 1:05 remaining.

5:15: Pitt up 10 with 30 seconds to play. First double digit lead of the entire game for either team.

Final: 72-62 Pitt Panthers

Overall, an unbelievably sloppy game, in which we could never put ETSU away. #1 seeds are now 99-0 against #16 seeds. Pitt advances to take on Oklahoma State on Sunday. DeJuan Blair ends the game with 27 points and 16 boards to lead Pittsburgh.

Flyers Shuffle Lines


In an attempt to get more offensive firepower, and to get Briere not only back in the lineup, but back to being the productive player that he can be, coach John Stevens has shuffled the top 3 lines for the Flyers.

The top three lines now see Jeff Carter centering Danny Briere and Scott Hartnell on one line. The 2nd line features Claude Giroux centering Simon Gagne and Mike Knuble, with the 3rd line being Richards centering Daniel Carcillo and Joffrey Lupul. If Briere can get back to finding his game coming off of the multiple injuries, he should be able to with Carter and Hartnell, both of whom have had great seasons so far. All three of these lines are very good, and the Flyers should continue to score lots of goals. If Stevens can find any line combination that starts to click, it will be nice going into the postseason. It is especially important to get Briere going, as Briere had a great postseason last season, and the Flyers will need his productivity again this postseason.

The Flyers currently sit in a tie for 4th place in the conference with the Penguins with 84 points.

2009/03/19

Lost "Namaste" Recap/Theories


Recap of Namaste:

Too much talking about things that don’t matter and lame attempts to try to give the viewers an "oh snap!" moment, but falling well below LOST standards. Who cares about the baby being Ethan? Ok, so it was Ethan, big deal. Jack sucked like he always does. Great to see LaFleur own him. We have all been waiting a while for that to happen. It will be interesting with what they will do with Sayid’s storyline. Next episode it looks like he is freaking out. Is he acting as a hostile? Is he trying to kill young Ben?

Radzinsky’s character sucked, but developing the Swan station was good to see. We hope that the writers show more of the original idea of the Swan and how it came to be. Young Ben at the end was one of the only cool parts of the episode, and it took almost an hour to get to it. Second highlight was Hurley commenting on Jin’s English.

In the present time, Sun knocking out Ben, explaining how he was in the make shift hospital last episode and her and Lapidus showing up in the Barracks. At the Barracks, they meet Christian Sheppard and find out the 4 missing people on Flight 316 are in 1977. They will have to explain why Sun was the only alive 815’er on 316 not to flashback to 1977. That does not seem to make sense, but what in Lost does? They should have a good explanation to it shortly (hopefully!)

It seems to me that after lying to viewers (saying that Lost would run straight with no reruns or weeks off), they better come back with a knockout episode. This was nowhere near that.

Theories:

The only interesting thing about learning that Ethan was the baby, is how does he end up rebelling against his parents/Dharma and going with the hostiles? Does he participate in the purge? Does Ben save him?

The reason Sun did not “flash” to 1977, was because she was already on the island in 1977. We know Ben is on the island in 1977, and I'm not sure where Lapidus falls in to this, but that would make sense on why those 3 did not “flash.” Maybe the baby we saw Pierre Chang take care of in Episode 1 of Season 5, was Sun and not Miles as we originally assumed.

Since Horace's son is Ethan, and Sun's father is possibly Chang, maybe hostiles like Widmore somehow kidnapped Sun and Ethan when they were kids. Widmore has done a large amount of business with Mr. Paik, possibly this relationship began or flourished with Widmore giving Sun to Paik?

When Lapidus and Sun get back to the main island, the barracks are a mess. After the purge, the barracks were taken over by the hostiles. Not until Keamy started blowing up stuff at the Barracks while looking for Ben, were those living quarters not occupied. That was at most 3 years ago. Looking at them, it did not look like a former warzone from 3 years ago. It seemed to have been empty for decades. Has something been done in the past to change the future?

Faraday is no longer on the island; if he were dead Sawyer would have said he was dead when Jack asked. So Faraday left the island sometime in between 74-77. That Faraday goes and does research on time travel at Oxford, has a nervous breakdown after he destroys Theresa’s life. He then moves to America and watches flight 815 goes down again. This explains why he starts crying. He knows that the future cannot be changed, so he again gets recruited for the freighter and lives it completely over again. He is in Groundhog’s Day the lost edition

March Madness Preview


March Madness kicks off in a little over an hour, and these next few days and weeks ahead should be exciting. These next two days mark the two most unproductive work days of the year, and everyone is watching games on the Internet, or checking scores, or just flat out not working.

There are always first round upsets, it is just a matter of picking the right ones, and hoping your teams are able to advance. It's never good when one of your final four teams is coming down the the wire against a 14 seed in the first round. No #1 seed has ever lost in the first round to a #16 seed, but there have been some close calls, and it has to eventually happen at some point.

Looking at the regions, I feel like the West region with UConn as the #1 seed is the hardest region. There are a lot of teams that are capable of coming out of the West. The West has some very strong teams who all play extremely well when they are playing at their best, but are inconsistent. Memphis, Missouri, Washington, and Purdue can all come out of this region, along with UConn.

I see the South as the easiest region, with UNC as the #1 seed in that region. Gonzaga, and Illinois are fairly weak matchups in the Sweet 16 for UNC, that is if either of them even make it there. Oklahoma has been playing poorly as of late, and might not even be able to make it to the elite 8 to face UNC. UNC probably has the easiest road to get to the final four.

In the Midwest, with Louisville as the #1 overall seed, there is some competition in this bracket. Although Izzo and Michigan State always seem to do pretty well in the tournament, Michigan State is fairly weak as a #2 seed. Kansas, West Virginia, and Wake Forest are all capable of going deep in this tourney.

In the East, with Pitt as the #1 seed, they will have to beat some good teams to get to the Final Four. Pitt has the toughest potential 2nd round matchup in Tennessee or Oklahoma State, both of whom can play at a very high level. Florida State would also be a tough match in the Sweet 16, along with either Villanova or Duke in the Elite 8.

All in all, it should be a great tournament. Kotite's Corner is endorsing the Pittsburgh Panthers are the 2009 College Basketball Champions. With Sam Young, Levance Fields, and DeJuan Blair, the Panthers have 3 of the best players in the nation at their position at the SF, PG, and C position, and if the officiating lets teams play, Pitt will win this tournament.

2009/03/17

NFL Mock Draft (3/17/09)

1. Detroit Lions – Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia

We might not agree with this pick, but we do believe that Stafford will be the choice here at #1 for the Lions. They drafted Drew Stanton last season, who a lot of people said was 1st round talent, yet they have not yet given him a shot to start. The Lions probably should look defense of O-Line here, but we think the pick is Stafford.

2. St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Classic left tackle who is arguably the top offensive lineman in a draft full of them. The Rams clearly need someone to protect the QB’s backside to replace Orlando Pace. Very athletic for his size.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

Clearly the best linebacker in this draft, and maybe the safest pick in the entire draft. All signs point to Curry being a future pro-bowler. Since the Chiefs acquired Matt Cassell to address their QB situation, they would be silly to pass on Curry at this point if he is there.

4. Seattle Seahawks – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

Some people consider Monroe the best offensive lineman in the draft over Jason Smith. Monroe is a classic tackle, perfect size, and the Seahawks should go offensive lineman, since they just signed Houshmandzadeh at wide receiver.

5. Cleveland Browns – B. J. Raji, DT, Boston College

Raji not only dominated the senior bowl, he also performed very well at the combine. Raji has established himself as the best defensive tackle in the draft. The Browns can’t stop anybody, and Raji will be a good stopper up the middle, similar to Haloti Ngata of the Ravens.

6. Cincinnati Bengals – Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

The Bengals need so much help in many areas, its tough to narrow it down. Orakpo is a guy you can plug in as the foundation of a defense. The Bengals defense obviously needs to get better in the same division as the Steelers and Ravens, and Orakpo would be a good place to start.

7. Oakland Raiders – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

Crabtree is falling in the eyes of some due to his upcoming surgery, and not being able to participate in the combine. He also measured in at 6’1” instead of the 6’3” he was listed as at Texas Tech. Still a beast, who is the best receiver among a group of deep receivers in this draft class, and you know Al Davis would love him to be here when they make this pick.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

Maclin may be the ultimate “playmaker” of the draft. Maclin has speed, can run routes, catch the ball, and can return punts. Definitely the 2nd best receiver in this draft behind Crabtree, and could fit in for the Jaguars right away.

9. Green Bay Packers – Everette Brown, DE/LB, Florida State

Brown is a guy who can play both defensive end, or outside linebacker positions, depending on what the Packers need. The Packers need a solid defensive end, and Brown plays a lot in the backfield, on both running and passing plays.

10. San Francisco 49ers – Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

The 49ers missed out on getting Kurt Warner this offseason, and clearly need a quarterback, and Sanchez could be the guy. Sanchez could turn out to be a very good QB, but may take some time to break in to the starting lineup.

11. Buffalo Bills – Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State

Maybin is a solid prospect out of Penn State, who can project as an outside linebacker or defensive end. Maybin didn’t do much to help himself at the combine, but he could be exactly what the Bills need at defensive end, or outside linebacker.

12. Denver Broncos – Rey Maualuga, LB, USC

The Broncos have been locking up everyone in free agency, including two former Eagles in Buckhalter and Dawkins. Maualuga is a playmaker. He had a bad combine, but if you watch tape of this guy, he stands out. He can get to the edges, and cover a tight end or running back. The Broncos need defensive help badly, and Maualuga should provide it for the long term.

13. Washington Redskins – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

The Redskins have addressed a few needs in free agency, and with Andre Smith on the board here, they may take him. Smith was once considered a top 5 pick, and could be a steal here for the Redskins.

14. New Orleans Saints – Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

The Saints need help all over their defense, and Jenkins is probably the best secondary player in this draft. Jenkins had a bad combine, so some are projecting him as a safety. Probably will be able to be effective at safety or cornerback.

15. Houston Texans – Brian Cushing, LB, USC

Cushing is shooting up the draft boards, and some say he will go before teammate Rey Maualuga. Cushing has a lot of upside, and would go nicely playing next to DeMeco Ryans.

16. San Diego Chargers – Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

May have done the most to help himself at the combine than anybody else. Ran the fastest 40 at the combine, and with his decent size, locked himself into being a first round pick. The Chargers don’t have much depth at receiver, and Heyward-Bey could provide help to Rivers, Gates, and the rushing attack.

17. New York Jets – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

One of the most intriguing guys in the draft is Freeman. At the combine, Freeman was shaky, but showed a tremendous upside. Could be a huge bust, but may be worth it for the Jets who will be hurt without having Favre at QB.

18. Chicago Bears – Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

Another one of the good tackles that will be taken in the first round. Oher could go higher or lower, depending on how teams rank the tackles that are available. The Bears could go a few ways with this pick, but we think they will go with Oher here.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Clay Matthews, LB, USC

The Buccaneers defense collapsed at the end of last season, and they couldn’t stop the run to save their life. Matthews is a great outside linebacker, who can go sideline to sideline, and could make an immediate impact on the Bucs, since they cut the rest of their roster.

20. Detroit Lions – Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi

The Lions need to go defense here if they take a QB #1 overall. Jerry is the 2nd ranked defensive tackle this season, and could make an immediate impact on the Lions.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

The Eagles lost their backup running back, Correll Buckhalter this offseason, and unfortunately, Brian Westbrook is not getting any younger. Moreno is probably the best running back in the draft, and if he is available at this pick, may be a huge steal.

22. Minnesota Vikings – Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

The Vikings use this pick on the secondary in an attempt to make their passing defense as good as their rushing defense. Davis is the 2nd ranked cornerback in this draft, although he may be the most athletic. Davis is a flat out playmaker.

23. New England Patriots – Larry English, DE/LB, Northern Illinois

With talks of the Patriots trading for Peppers, this pick may not come to fruition, but with the Peppers talk, it is obvious that the Patriots are looking for help at the DE/LB position, and English could step in and provide help immediately.

24. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

Great blocker, but doesn’t have much speed. Can still catch what is thrown his way, and should be effective. The Falcons should be surrounding Matt Ryan with talent, to maximize his talent. They have Turner, and White already. Pettigrew should be able to help out a lot with the passing and running game.

25. Miami Dolphins – Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

The Dolphins have a need on the defensive line, they do not have much depth here, and they have not yet been able to replace the production of Jason Taylor. Jackson is one of the best defensive end’s in this draft.

26. Baltimore Ravens – Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

Harvin had a great career in college, and looks like he could be a good playmaker at the next level. The Ravens just lost their punt returner (Leonhard), and Harvin could fit in there right away, and work his way into the starting lineup at wide receiver, giving Flacco another weapon to grow with.

27. Indianapolis Colts – James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State

The Colts defense was not very good last season, most notably trying to stop the run. Laurinaitis could be a very good inside linebacker for years to come. Similar to fellow linebacker, Maualuga, Laurinaitis stands out when you watch him play.

28. Philadelphia Eagles – Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

The Eagles haven’t done much this offseason, but it seems clear that both offensive tackles will not be with the team next season. The Eagles signed Stacy Andrews, but still need another tackle in this draft. Britton could be a steal at this pick.

29. New York Giants – Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

The Giants could look elsewhere in this pick, since they are inviting Burress back to their initial minicamps. However, there is no guarantee that Burress will be back with the Giants, and the Giants clearly were not the same without him. Britt is a receiver who has the same skill set as Burress; he is tall, and can stretch the field. He also attended Rutgers, giving him a local tie to the New York/Northern New Jersey area.

30. Tennessee Titans – Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DT, Missouri

The Titans need a solid defensive tackle to replace the loss of Haynesworth. Hood is a very good defensive tackle, who can come in and help plug up the middle of the line, and replace some of the prodictivity they will miss without Haynesworth.

31. Arizona Cardinals – LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh

McCoy is a beast, and may be the most complete running back of this draft. McCoy is considered a small back at 5’11”, but weighs 210, and can run the ball up the middle if he needs to. Finds the hole quickly, and can make defenders look foolish with his cutting ability. Should be a solid back for years to come, and the Cardinals should not let him get past them, with Edge wanting out.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alex Mack, C, California

The Steelers may get a steal here in Mack. There are a lot of other good offensive lineman going in the first round, most are huge tackles, so Mack can get overshadowed. The Steelers need offensive line help, and Mack can provide it.

Click here to see last week's mock draft.

Click here to see our 2nd mock draft.

Click here to see our 1st mock draft.

2009/03/16

Kotite's Corner Tournament Link

Welcome to the First Annual Kotite's Corner Tournament. Let's see if the readers can beat the idiots at Kotite's. Follow along with all the writers of Kotite's Corner

Join here

Password: Eagles

I think you need a Yahoo Account.

Let the Madness Begin


Every year when March approaches, you know a couple things. Warm weather is right around the corner, and college basketball kicks into full gear with March Madness. Some say March Madness is the greatest tournament/game/playoff system in all of sports. I’d say besides maybe the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl, that may be true.

March Madness is so great that it makes college football’s bowl system look like an absolute joke.... probably because the bowl system is an absolute joke. College basketball actually decides the champion on the court in the greatest tournament you can possibly have. When you put 65 teams into a bracket style tournament, madness is sure to ensue.

This year’s tournament seems to be fairly top heavy, but is also very wide open. All the #1 seeds this year have been in the top 10 all season, with Pittsburgh, UConn, and UNC barely leaving the top 5 all season. Other teams such as #2 seeds Oklahoma, Duke, and Michigan State have been in the top 10 pretty much all year also. After these top teams, the rest of the field is wide open. And even the top teams have lost games to some other these other teams comprising the “rest of the field.” This really is anyone’s tournament, and should make some great basketball. The conference tournaments were crazy, we have already seen a lot of upsets, and multi-overtime games. If this continues, we are in for some great games come this March Madness.

Check back for the annual Kotite’s Corner Tournament Link to be posted shortly.

2009/03/12

March Madness Bracket (3/12/09)

Not much new in the bracket today. Robert Morris and Portland State both were two points winners, and locked up automatic bids, and Providence played themselves back to being close to being in the tournament by beating DePaul. A little shuffling around for today's bracket, there should be many more changes coming as the major conferences get into the bulk of their conference tourneys.

#1: Pittsburgh, UNC, UConn, Oklahoma
#2: Louisville, Memphis, Michigan State, Kansas
#3: Duke, Wake Forest, Villanova, Washington
#4: Gonzaga, UCLA, Missouri, Clemson
#5: Xavier, Purdue, Florida State, Illinois
#6: LSU, Arizona State, Marquette, Syracuse
#7: Butler, West Virginia, California, Utah
#8: Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma State, BYU
#9: Siena, Wisconsin, Boston College, Dayton
#10- Wisconsin, South Carolina, Ohio State, Texas A&M
#11- New Mexico, VCU, Michigan, Arizona
#12- Creighton, Utah State, Western Kentucky, UNLV
#13- North Dakota State, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State
#14- American, Binghamton, Morgan State, Robert Morris
#15- Cornell, Bowling Green, Portland State, Radford
#16- Morehead State, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State
Play-in-Game: Cal State Northridge, Chattanooga

Last 4 In: Creghton, UNLV, New Mexico, Michigan
Last 4 Out: Penn State, Florida, Saint Marys, San Diego State

Conference Breakdown (Multiple Bids)
Big East (7) – Pittsburgh (1), UConn (1), Louisville (2), Villanova (3), Syracuse (6), Marquette (6), West Virginia (7)
ACC (6) – UNC (1), Duke (3), Wake Forest (3), Clemson (4), Florida State (5), Boston College (9)
Big 12 (6) – Oklahoma (1), Kansas (2), Missouri (4), Texas (8), Oklahoma State (8), Texas A&M (10)
Big Ten (6) – Michigan State (2), Purdue (5), Illinois (5), Wisconsin (9), Ohio State (10), Michigan (11)
Pac-10 (5) – Washington (3), UCLA (4), Arizona State (6), California (7), Arizona (11)
Mountain West (4) – Utah (7), BYU (8), New Mexico (11), UNLV (12)
SEC (3) – LSU (6), Tennessee (8), South Carolina (10)
Atlantic 10 (2) – Xavier (5), Dayton (9)
Horizon (2) – Butler (7), Cleveland State (13)
Missouri Valley (2) – Creighton (12), Northern Iowa (13)

This is Crazy! Prehistoric Shark Discovered

2009/03/11

Hollywood's Squares


It’s been awhile, folks. I gave you 6 winners and 6 losers, and decided I wasn’t going to allow you to risk your money on my picks until I was feeling it again. Well, now I am. March in NCAA is always $$$$$$ so expect to make some big money in tourney games. For tonight:

Play 1: 3 team, 7 point teaser (if you don’t know what that is, you shouldn’t be gambling, however, a teaser is when you take a certain amount of points off the spread of multiple games, however to be a winner, every game must be a winner)

Hornets –1, Seton Hall +13.5, Washington State –2

Play 2: Golden State –2.5….play of the day by far….bet 4 x whatever you bet regularly on this one.

Play 3: Atlanta Hawks –2

Play 4: Bulls +8….People love the Magic but they just aren’t the same without Jameer and the Bulls are making a playoff push. They have so much talent on that roster, and they can be dangerous. It took a miracle shot by D-Wade to beat them two nights ago, and I expect the same kind of effort vs Orlando.

Play 5: Puerto Rico –2.5 in World Baseball Classic

Yeah yeah, the Netherlands are the story of the season. While I won’t discredit what they did to the Dominican, it did take 10 innings for them to score, and a throwing error to get them their second run. This team will come back down to reality tonight, as they have practically no offense. Puerto Rico has lots of major league players, and should take care of Netherlands very easily.

If 1 unit is whatever amount you play your normal bet, all plays are for 1 unit, with Golden State being for 4 units and PR being for 3.

Lets make it rain ladies and gents.

March Madness Bracket (3/11/09)

Championship week is just kicking into gear. Lots of teams have clinched automatic bids already, and we have seen teams like Cleveland State knock a team from off the bubble. It only looks to get more exciting this coming weekend when the major conferences start playing. Here are the updated seeds as of the morning of 03/11/09.

#1: Pittsburgh, UNC, UConn, Oklahoma
#2: Louisville, Memphis, Michigan State, Kansas
#3: Duke, Wake Forest, Villanova, Washington
#4: Gonzaga, UCLA, Missouri, Clemson
#5: Xavier, Purdue, Florida State, Illinois
#6: LSU, Arizona State, Butler, Syracuse
#7: Marquette, West Virginia, California, Utah
#8: Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma State, BYU
#9: Siena, Wisconsin, Boston College, Dayton
#10- Wisconsin, South Carolina, Ohio State, Texas A&M
#11- UNLV, VCU, Michigan, Utah State
#12- Saint Marys, Arizona, Western Kentucky, New Mexico
#13- North Dakota State, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State
#14- American, Binghamton, Morgan State, Robert Morris
#15- Cornell, Bowling Green, Portland State, Radford
#16- Morehead State, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State
Play-in-Game: Cal State Northridge, Chattanooga

Last 4 In: Saint Marys, Arizona, New Mexico, Michigan
Last 4 Out: Florida, Penn State, Minnesota, Creighton

Conference Breakdown (Multiple Bids)
Big East (7)
– Pittsburgh (1), UConn (1), Louisville (2), Villanova (3), Syracuse (6), West Virginia (7), Marquette (7)
ACC (6) – UNC (1), Duke (3), Wake Forest (3), Clemson (4), Florida State (5), Boston College (9)
Big 12 (6) – Oklahoma (1), Kansas (2), Missouri (4), Texas (8), Oklahoma State (8), Texas A&M (10)
Big Ten (6) – Michigan State (2), Purdue (5), Illinois (5), Wisconsin (9), Ohio State (10), Michigan (11)
Pac-10 (5) – Washington (3), UCLA (4), Arizona State (6), California (7), Arizona (12)
Mountain West (4) – Utah (7), BYU (8), UNLV (11), New Mexico (12)
SEC (3) – LSU (6), Tennessee (8), South Carolina (10)
Atlantic 10 (2) – Xavier (5), Dayton (9)
West Coast (2) – Gonzaga (4), Saint Marys (12)
Horizon (2) – Butler (6), Cleveland State (13)

2009/03/09

It's Time for A New QB Rating

The quarterback rating was something that always intrigued me. To have a formula to compare players based on a combination of stats is great. But, I’ve always had problems with what the NFL uses to rate quarterbacks. I first wanted to simplify the QB Rating equation, but I could never get it right, (This guy did) so I had to move on from that. Then I thought what does the QB rating actually mean? Philip Rivers lead the league with a QB rating of 105.5 this year, how good is that? How much better is that than the 10th QB on the list, Matt Cassel at 89.4? And more importantly, what does that 16.1 point difference in rating actually mean. Most sports statistics mean something. In baseball, ERA is the amount of earned runs a pitcher gives up in 9 innings, hockey has points for goals and assists, and in basketball they keep track of points per game. All are great ways to compare players and all have meaning behind the stats.

First, I did some searching online and discovered that the QB rating was created in 1973 by an executive at the Pro Football Hall of fame, Don Smith. Smith’s formula compares a quarterback’s performance based on the total of all quarterback performances in the past 10 years. In the formula that Smith created, he separates completion percentage, passing yardage, TDs and interceptions and awards 1 point for an average game and 2 points for a record breaking game and zero for a terrible game. Smith weighted each category and averaged out the numbers and bam you get the QB Rating. With the top QB rating being 158.3 and the lowest of course is 0, average was supposed to be 66.7. The average for the past 10 years was 80.1.

What if you could compare the quarterback’s stats to their team’s chances to winning the game? This makes the most sense, they touch the ball more than any other player on the team. And why not, they get all the credit when the team wins and all the blame when they lose? So I took every quarterback’s stats from every game the last ten years and put a winning percentage to each category. For example if a quarterback doesn’t throw an interception in the game his team's chances of winning is 66.11%. If a QB throws 2 TDs, he wins 58% of the time. A completion percentage of 40% only wins 18.8% of the time. I graphed each number found the best line to fit the graph.

I did this for each category and kept the stats that had the strongest correlation to winning. I found that completion %, total TDs, total turnovers, yards/play and sacks all had extremely strong graphs. Surprisingly total passing yards didn’t, the graph was all over the place.

The only stat that I was keeping the same from the old equation was completion percentage. All the others were tweaked a bit. It makes more sense especially with today’s football to include things like rushing yards, rushing TDs and fumbles. Even true pocket passers, QB sneak it into the endzone every once in a while. To prove my point, Peyton Manning has 17 career rushing TDs. And when all is said and done Peyton running the ball in for a score gets the same result as him throwing it in, so shouldn’t his rating benefit the same?

For each category I have a linear equation with an R2 of over .97. For all people that aren’t math nerds, the simplest way I can explain it is, R2 is, when using linear lines, a number that shows how strong a line fits with to a set of data points. The number 1.00 means the line fits perfect and 0 the not fitting at all. TDs and turnovers have the strongest correlation with a .999 and the other categories not too far behind, yards/play .97, sacks .98 and completion percent at .98.




After I got the equation for each category I did a weighted average and got your Kosmo Winning Percentage (Why wouldn’t I name my formula after myself?). Now this equation is uglier than the old version, but it uses stats that have a connection to what you play for, winning the game. Another way to say it is, this number shows which QB put their team in best position to win games.

Using the KWP this year’s top passer was not Phillip Rivers, it was Drew Brees with a number of .640. Now one may look at this number and think that it seems odd or small for a rating the top QB of the year. But the QB is just one of several pieces of the puzzle to win the game. There are other factors like the Saints 23rd ranked defense or 28th ranked rush offense, both decreasing their chances of winning games. And the reason why they won 8 games instead of the 10 predicted.

Just because the KWP is higher than the opposing QB doesn’t always mean you will win the game. Just take this year’s Super Bowl for example. Kurt Warner’s numbers put the Cardinals in a better position to win with a KWP of .647 compared to Big Ben’s .567, but The Steelers defense made big plays, specifically James Harrison 100 yard TD.

With this new rating there is no cap or floor, it goes slightly outside of the 1.000-.000 scale of winning percentage. The best game ever played by a QB, Johnny Unitas 11/12/67, got a KWP of 1.062 and the worst game ever played Ryan Leaf 9/20/98, got a KWP of -0.010. It didn’t like that there were 47 “perfect” games for QBs, with some games way more impressive than others.

Football is evolving; the game isn’t close to what it was back in 1973. I think it’s time for a new way to rate quarterbacks and this is the way to do it.


I listed my formula and some new rankings below. This season’s KWP, Top Careers, Stand-Out Seasons, “Perfect” Games and “Zero” games.



I am up for ideas on how to improve the formula or other suggestions.

NFL Mock Draft (3/09/09)

1. Detroit Lions – Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia

We might not agree with this pick, but we do believe that Stafford will be the choice here at #1 for the Lions. They drafted Drew Stanton last season, who a lot of people said was 1st round talent, yet they have not yet given him a shot to start. The Lions probably should look defense of O-Line here, but we think the pick is Stafford.

2. St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Classic left tackle who is arguably the top offensive lineman in a draft full of them. The Rams clearly need someone to protect the QB’s backside to replace Orlando Pace. Very athletic for his size.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

Clearly the best linebacker in this draft, and maybe the safest pick in the entire draft. All signs point to Curry being a future pro-bowler. Since the Chiefs acquired Matt Cassell to address their QB situation, they would be silly to pass on Curry at this point if he is there.

4. Seattle Seahawks – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

Some people consider Monroe the best offensive lineman in the draft over Jason Smith. Monroe is a classic tackle, perfect size, and the Seahawks should go offensive lineman, since they just signed Houshmandzadeh at wide receiver.

5. Cleveland Browns – B. J. Raji, DT, Boston College

Raji not only dominated the senior bowl, he also performed very well at the combine. Raji has established himself as the best defensive tackle in the draft. The Browns can’t stop anybody, and Raji will be a good stopper up the middle, similar to Haloti Ngata of the Ravens.

6. Cincinnati Bengals – Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

The Bengals need so much help in many areas, its tough to narrow it down. Orakpo is a guy you can plug in as the foundation of a defense. The Bengals defense obviously needs to get better in the same division as the Steelers and Ravens, and Orakpo would be a good place to start.


7. Oakland Raiders – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

Crabtree is falling in the eyes of some due to his upcoming surgery, and not being able to participate in the combine. He also measured in at 6’1” instead of the 6’3” he was listed as at Texas Tech. Still a beast, who is the best receiver among a group of deep receivers in this draft class, and you know Al Davis would love him to be here when they make this pick.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

Maclin may be the ultimate “playmaker” of the draft. Maclin has speed, can run routes, catch the ball, and can return punts. Definitely the 2nd best receiver in this draft behind Crabtree, and could fit in for the Jaguars right away.

9. Green Bay Packers – Everette Brown, DE/LB, Florida State

Brown is a guy who can play both defensive end, or outside linebacker positions, depending on what the Packers need. The Packers need a solid defensive end, and Brown plays a lot in the backfield, on both running and passing plays.

10. San Francisco 49ers – Mark Sanchez, QB, USC


The 49ers missed out on getting Kurt Warner this offseason, and clearly need a quarterback, and Sanchez could be the guy. Sanchez could turn out to be a very good QB, but may take some time to break in to the starting lineup.

11. Buffalo Bills – Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State


The Bills need help in the secondary, and Jenkins is probably the best secondary player in this draft. Jenkins had a bad combine, so some are projecting him as a safety. Probably will be able to be effective at safety or cornerback.

12. Denver Broncos – Rey Maualuga, LB, USC

The Broncos have been locking up everyone in free agency, including two former Eagles in Buckhalter and Dawkins. Maualuga is a playmaker. He had a bad combine, but if you watch tape of this guy, he stands out. He can get to the edges, and cover a tight end or running back. The Broncos need defensive help badly, and Maualuga should provide it for the long term.

13. Washington Redskins – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama


The Redskins have addressed a few needs in free agency, and with Andre Smith on the board here, they may take him. Smith was once considered a top 5 pick, and could be a steal here for the Redskins.

14. New Orleans Saints – James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State


The Saints obviously need help on defense, and Laurinaitis could be a very good inside linebacker for years to come. Similar to fellow linebacker, Maualuga, Laurinaitis stands out when you watch him play.

15. Houston Texans – Brian Cushing, LB, USC


Cushing is shooting up the draft boards, and some say he will go before teammate Rey Maualuga. Cushing has a lot of upside, and would go nicely playing next to DeMeco Ryans.

16. San Diego Chargers – Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

Lots of talk about the Chargers not being able to retain LT may lead to them taking a back here. It may be a mistake, especially since you don’t need a back if LT is retained, and Sproles is already back. Moreno may or may not be the best back in the draft, he did not have a great combine.

17. New York Jets – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State


One of the most intriguing guys in the draft is Freeman. At the combine, Freeman was shaky, but showed a tremendous upside. Could be a huge bust, but may be worth it for the Jets who will be hurt without having Favre at QB.

18. Chicago Bears – Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi


Another one of the good tackles that will be taken in the first round. Oher could go higher or lower, depending on how teams rank the tackles that are available. The Bears could go a few ways with this pick, but we think they will go with Oher here.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi


The Buccaneers defense collapsed at the end of last season, and they couldn’t stop the run to save their life. Jerry is the 2nd ranked defensive tackle this season, and could make an immediate impact on the Bucs, since they cut the rest of their roster.

20. Detroit Lions – William Beatty, OT, Connecticut

The Lions need a lot, one being offensive line help. If they take Stafford 1st, they will have a young QB, and they already have a young RB in Kevin Smith. Beatty will help protect these young guys.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

The Eagles haven’t done much this season, but it seems clear that both offensive tackles will not be with the team next season. The Eagles signed Stacy Andrews, but still need another tackle in this draft. Britton could be a steal at this pick.

22. Minnesota Vikings – Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois


The Vikings use this pick on the secondary in an attempt to make their passing defense as good as their rushing defense. Davis is the 2nd ranked cornerback in this draft, although he may be the most athletic. Davis is a flat out playmaker.

23. New England Patriots – Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State


Maybin could be a steal this late in the draft, some people say he is a mid 1st rounder, others say he is a 2nd rounder. He didn’t do much to help himself at the combine, but he could be exactly what the Patriots need at defensive end, or outside linebacker.

24. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State


Great blocker, but doesn’t have much speed. Can still catch what is thrown his way, and should be effective. The Falcons should be surrounding Matt Ryan with talent, to maximize his talent. They have Turner, and White already. Pettigrew should be able to help out a lot with the passing and running game.

25. Miami Dolphins – Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

The Dolphins have a need on the defensive line, they do not have much depth here, and they have not yet been able to replace the production of Jason Taylor. Jackson is one of the best defensive end’s in this draft.

26. Baltimore Ravens – Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

Harvin had a great career in college, and looks like he could be a good playmaker at the next level. The Ravens just lost their punt returner (Leonhard), and Harvin could fit in there right away, and work his way into the starting lineup at wide receiver, giving Flacco another weapon to grow with.

27. Indianapolis Colts – Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DT, Missouri

The Colts defense was not very good last season, most notably trying to stop the run. Hood is a very good defensive tackle, who can come in and help plug up the middle of the line.

28. Philadelphia Eagles – Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State

The Eagles lost their backup running back, Correll Buckhalter this offseason, and unfortunately, Brian Westbrook is not getting any younger. Wells can pound the ball inside, and can also handle a lot of carries. If Wells reaches his potential, he could take over for Westbrook when he can no longer carry the load.

29. New York Giants – Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland


May have done the most to help himself at the combine than anybody else. Ran the fastest 40 at the combine, and with his decent size, locked himself into being a first round pick. The Giants are unsure of what will happen to Plaxico Burress, and Heyward-Bey could provide help to the rest of that offense.

30. Tennessee Titans – Sen’Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn


The Titans need a solid defensive tackle to replace the loss of Haynesworth. Marks can come in and fill that large void left, and minimize the loss of Haynesworth.

31. Arizona Cardinals – LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh


McCoy is a beast, and may be the most complete running back of this draft. McCoy is considered a small back at 5’11”, but weighs 210, and can run the ball up the middle if he needs to. Finds the hole quickly, and can make defenders look foolish with his cutting ability. Should be a solid back for years to come, and the Cardinals should not let him get past them, with Edge wanting out.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alex Mack, C, California

The Steelers may get a steal here in Mack. There are a lot of other good offensive lineman going in the first round, most are huge tackles, so Mack can get overshadowed. The Steelers need offensive line help, and Mack can provide it.

2009/03/06

Open Letter to Philly Sports Fans


It has come to the attention of Kotite's Corner that you have been thoroughly disrespected, and in some cases overtly slandered, over the past week in the aftermath of the Dawkins fiasco. No surprise there, you may think, since you're certainly no strangers to uninformed put-downs by know-nothing outsiders. This is distinctly different, however, as the recent verbal smackdowns have been primarily home grown. Your well-founded distress and outrage over the sickening mishandling of the Dawkins affair have been derided in several quarters of the Philly sports media, and have been the subject of "tut-tut" chiding by quite a few Philly sports blogs. One would expect these reactions from the likes of Eskin and Spadaro, the robotic chief commode carriers for Team Gold Standard. But when drinking the Lurie Kool-Aid spreads to major Philly sports writers and bloggers, it's time for the alarm bells to go off, and Kotite's Corner is here to ring them on behalf of the best damn sports fans in the country!

The main target of this derision has been your emotional reaction to losing one of the most talented, inspirational leaders in all of sports. Your emotion, it is claimed, has clouded your judgment. After all, Dawkins' skills had deteriorated. He was on the downside of his career. He had nothing left in the tank. Johnson had to make defensive adjustments to hide his many liabilities, which opponents would soon learn to exploit. And anyway, it was his decision to take the Bronco's overpayment and walk out.? He didn't give the Eagles a fair shot to match.? One columnist -- who will go unnamed but whose initials are FF -- went so far in a particularly nasty piece in the Inky to portray Dawk as a self-centered, over-the-hill showboat whose act should have been put out to pasture seasons ago. This same genius sarcastically dismissed Philly fans as too stupid, too drunk, and too childish to appreciate the Eagles' sensible and mature decision to let Dawkins shuffle off to Denver.

Enough of this crap, Philly fans! Most of you have more sports knowledge in your little fingers than these self-appointed media and blogger experts have in their overly ample bodies. You know perfectly well that Dawk was no longer the player he was 2, 3, or 4 years ago. You know perfectly well there were increasing limitations to his skill-set. But you also know that there was no greater leader on any team in any sport. And you also know this is a man who could still inspire teammates to be the best they could possibly be. And you know this was a player who gave everything he had to an organization that benefited both professionally and financially from his contributions.

But most of all you know that there's a right way for employers to treat valued employees and a wrong way. You know that sometimes cold rationality and calculated logic by themselves are wrong. You know there's a place for heart and guts and determination and dedication in measuring performance that goes well beyond statistics, and which deserves to be valued and rewarded every bit as much as this or that "objective" achievement. You know all this because in addition to your knowledge, you are by far the most passionate fans in the country! And your passion is a gift that allows your vision to extend beyond the narrow range of those who would reduce sports to dull statistics and dollars & cents.

So to all the true Philly sports fans, Kotite's Corner salutes your courageous and heart-felt opposition to the Dawkins travesty, a travesty that is being shamefully "explained away" by all too many gutless media minions in this very town.

2009/03/05

Eagles Trade Greg Lewis


The Eagles traded Greg Lewis today to the New England Patriots. The Patriots will receive Lewis and a 2010 7th round pick, and the Eagles will receive the Patriots' 5th round pick this season. The Eagles now have 1000 picks this draft. Only time will tell if there will be the same outcry as Brian Dawkins leaving town. Getting a 5th round pick is pretty good for Greg Lewis, we probably would have taken a bag of balls for him. Lewis was completely worthless, lets be honest. He can't catch, he can't even be a gunner on special teams, because he can't get off the line. Greg Lewis is built like me.... and that's not a good thing. The Eagles may or may not make a good pick with the 5th round pick they received, but at least it is a player who has a chance of being productive, something Greg Lewis just isn't. Greg Lewis became somewhat of a punchline for the bad receivers the Eagles have had in the recent past. "Donovan McNabb didn't play well, but he is throwing to ......Greg Lewis." I don't want this to be pure ripping Lewis, he seems like a nice guy who always works hard because he is undersized.... he's just not that good. Good luck to him on the Patriots. Greg Lewis does hold the distinction of being the only wide receiver in Philadelphia Eagles history to have a TD catch in the Super Bowl.

Frank Fitzpatrick Gets Owned

The Philadelphia Inquirer's own Frank Fitzpatrick wrote an article about the Brian Dawkins situation in today's edition of the paper. To be honest, I didn't even know who Frank Fitzpatrick was until today, and since this article takes the time to take "sarcastic" jabs at Philadelphia fans, we figured we would respond to Frank in kind. See Frank's entire article here. Here is a portion of it--

"The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
How could the Eagles let Brian Dawkins walk?
Where are they going to find another 35-year-old safety with fading skills?
Who is going to fist-bump and chest-thump after such rare and monumental events as a first-quarter tackle?
And now, when their starters are introduced before home games, who's going to come bounding out of the smoke like a kangaroo on crack?
Why couldn't they have listened to us fans?
I mean, why do we even bother to dress in team jerseys and get drunk every Sunday if we're just going to be ignored? Wonder how they'd like it if we didn't renew our season tickets? Bet you that franchise wouldn't survive long if they had to fill the stadium with high-school graduates.
Doesn't Andy Reid know that we're the real football experts? How many times has he called a talk radio station? How many fantasy leagues is he in? What are his blogging credentials?"


Really? Fitzpatrick rips the fans as if we don't know anything. Who does this guy think he is? Our very own, Dr. G took the time to e-mail Fitzpatrick, and the response is included below--

Re: your column "The Squawk over Dawk," I'm aware that your MO is to offer up what you take to be clever, sardonic parodies. In fact, they are nothing more than nasty, sarcastic hatchet-jobs caricaturing passionate Philly sports fans and, in this case, a truly inspirational player. Your depiction of this future Hall-of-Famer as a has-been showboater couldn't be farther from the truth, and is just plain ugly and mean-spirited in its level of disrespect and incivility. But perhaps I'm being a bit harsh in my judgment: after all, you out of all the Inky sports writers would know first hand what it's like to be an aging has-been with "fading skills..."

Pitt Wins Wild Game Against Marquette


The Pitt Panthers won Wednesday night to improve to 27-3 on the season, 14-3 in the Big East. With this win, Pitt clinched the coveted "double bye" in the Big East tournament. The top 4 seeds in the Big East tournament will get the double bye and advance to the Quarterfinals without even playing. This is a very big deal, especially when playing in the best conference in basketball. The Panthers can still finish anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference, depending on what happens this weekend.

The game last night at the Pete was a wild one. The first half was fairly uptempo, with Pitt outplaying Marquette. However, the Golden Eagles hit some late 3's in the 1st half to keep the game close. The Panthers went to the locker room with a 7 point lead. The 2nd half started, and it got crazy. Marquette went on a 21-5 run in only the first four minutes of the 2nd half. This turned their 7 point halftime deficit into a 9 point lead. The Panthers were not rattled, and from that point on, proceeded to shoot 16-20 from the field the rest of the way to win by 15. The Panthers "Big 3" all played well. Blair had 23 and 9 boards, Young had 18 and 8 boards, Fields had 17 and 10 assists. Gilbert Brown and Jermaine Dixon also put up double digits, and gave the Panthers a lift.

What does this all mean in terms of seeding for the tournament? I feel like Pitt has done enough to get a #1 seed for the tournament no matter what. However, UConn is coming to Pitt this Saturday in what should be another great game, just like the first time these two teams played this season. If Pitt wins that game, there is no doubt they lock up a #1 seed in the tournament, even if they lost their first Big East tournament game. If Pitt loses to UConn, they may just need to get to the Big East semi-finals or finals to get a #1 seed in the tournament. It does help that Oklahoma lost last night, and Memphis should not be considered for a #1 seed. Dickie V, and Dan Shulman, who announced last night's Pitt game were discussing where Memphis would fall in the Big East, and they were both saying Memphis would fall in the 4-5 range, or even 6-7 range in the Big East. As of right now, Pitt still has the #1 RPI in college basketball.